Stephen King is arguably bigger than he’s ever been. Edgar Wright is a beloved director. Glen Powell is one of our most promising rising movie stars. That all feels like an equation for a winning movie, right? That’s certainly Paramount’s hope when it comes to “The Running Man,” a new adaptation of King’s dystopian story of the same name. The question is, can Wright’s remake avoid becoming a box office flop like the original in 1987? For now, it’s tough to say.
“The Running Man,” which is more of a re-adaptation than a remake, is looking at a domestic opening in the $19 to $28 million range when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. It will be opening against “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t,” which is looking at $12 to $17 million in its debut. Oz Perkins’ horror flick “Keeper” is also arriving, with a $6 to $11 million opening in the cards. It will be a relatively crowded weekend.
What’s interesting, in this movie’s case though, is that expectations have varied wildly. The folks at Box Office Pro had it pulling in between $40 and $50 million based on projections from early October. Those estimates have clearly come down, but still, the expected range for this movie is a little all over the place for the time being. For Paramount, the difference between $20 million and $40 million is, to put it mildly, massive.
Starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, 1987’s “The Running Man” made just $38.1 million against a $27 million budget. It has since become a cult favorite of sorts, but it was by no means a success. The X factor when it comes to Wright’s version is the budget. The trailers have certainly made it look large-scale and expensive.
The Running Man’s success or failure is going to come down to its budget
The film takes place in a near future and focuses on a top-rated show where contestants must survive 30 days while being hunted by professional assassins. The impressive cast also includes William H. Macy (“Shameless”), Lee Pace (“Foundation”), Emilia Jones (“Coda”), Michael Cera (“Superbad”), Jayme Lawson (“Sinners”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), and Josh Brolin (“Weapons”).
As of this writing, the budget hasn’t been revealed, and that’s the determining factor. If Paramount spent around $50 million, a $20 million opening would be fine, especially if overseas audiences turn up. If they spent closer to $100 million? They’ll have to pray for an overperformance or very long legs. Fortunately, if word of mouth is good, this can be more of a marathon than a sprint, playing well into December.
As a movie star, Powell is very much on the rise. He helped lead “Twisters” to an $81 million opening last year, a record for a disaster movie, en route to $372.2 million worldwide. Alongside Sydney Sweeney, he also helped carry “Anyone But You” to well over $200 million globally, a massive surprise at the time.
This, however, will be Powell’s biggest test as a movie star to date. This movie largely rests on his shoulders. That said, Wright is a filmmaker with a loyal following as well, having made cult favorites such as “Shaun of the Dead” and “Hot Fuzz.” Commercially, though, he’s never helmed a blockbuster as a director. “Baby Driver,” with $227 million worldwide against a $34 million budget, remains his biggest hit. At $20.5 million, that’s also his biggest opening weekend thus far. Can this help take him to the next level? We shall see.
“The Running Man” hits theaters on November 14, 2025.
